Ukraine faces crisis as Middle East conflict empowers Russia
As the US focuses its military resources on the Middle East, Ukraine faces mounting pressure, dwindling air defenses, and a looming Russian spring offensive.
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By Ahmet Taş | Wise News Press
KYIV, UKRAINE — As the United States' conflict with Iran in the Middle East prolongs, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy faces mounting diplomatic and military pressure while Russia aggressively prepares for a new spring offensive.
The sharp rise in global oil prices is rapidly replenishing Moscow's war chest, while the shift of US air defense capacities to the Gulf is severely threatening the support Kyiv receives from the Western alliance. Entering the fifth year of the Russian invasion, this geopolitical pivot raises serious questions about how many resources Washington can continue to allocate to Ukraine's defense.
Tensions on the Trump-Zelenskyy line
According to DW, US-mediated peace talks regarding Ukraine have been effectively suspended due to the escalating war in the Middle East. President Donald Trump's pragmatic and sometimes harsh approach toward Ukraine is also creating deep anxiety in Kyiv. During Zelenskyy's visit to the White House on February 28, 2025, Vice President J.D. Vance's on-camera remark, "Have you ever said thank you?" stood out as a clear indicator of the strained relations between the allies.
Adding to Kyiv's frustration, the US recently granted a temporary sanction waiver allowing the sale of Russian oil already loaded onto ships. Furthermore, Trump increasingly views Zelenskyy as an obstacle to peace. In an interview with NBC News, Trump evaluated the diplomatic standstill:
"He needs to step up and make a deal. Putin is ready for an agreement, but reaching an agreement with Zelenskyy is much harder."
Adopting a more pragmatic stance following the tense White House meeting, Zelenskyy has begun to openly express his concerns. The Ukrainian leader stated he has a "very bad feeling" about the repercussions of the Middle East conflict, noting that peace negotiations are being continuously delayed and warning that Ukraine could soon face a severe shortage of US-made Patriot missiles.
In an attempt to keep Washington engaged, Zelenskyy offered to send over 200 military experts to the Gulf to help combat Iranian-made Shahed drones. However, Trump bluntly rejected the proposal, stating that the US does not need their help in drone defense.
Russia prepares for a spring offensive
While deep cracks appear in the Western alliance, the Russian military is preparing for a new wave of attacks as the weather warms. The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Russian troops have intensified artillery and drone strikes in the eastern parts of Donetsk and various other frontlines to wear down Ukrainian defenses ahead of ground assaults.
In an effort to disrupt the Kremlin's operational plans, Ukrainian forces have launched counterattacks in the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. Reports indicate that Ukraine is increasing its medium-range strikes against Russian supply lines and military equipment to preempt the anticipated offensive. According to ISW analysts, Ukraine's successful counter-operations are forcing Russia to divide its strength and materials between defending current positions and launching new attacks.
A war of attrition and negotiation deadlock
Russian President Vladimir Putin recently announced that approximately 700,000 Russian soldiers are currently deployed in Ukraine. Jack Watling, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), noted that Kyiv's defensive positions are being heavily strained due to increasing Russian offensive power and Ukraine's dwindling troop numbers. Watling highlighted that despite suffering heavy casualties, Russia appears capable of maintaining its troop supply rate through attractive salaries and the recruitment of foreign fighters and students.
US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard echoed these concerns during a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing. Gabbard stated that Russia maintains the upper hand in the conflict and predicted that Moscow will proceed with a slow war of attrition until it determines its strategic goals have been met.
Meanwhile, peace negotiations remain in a complete deadlock. Putin demands the total withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the four annexed regions, the downsizing of the Ukrainian military, the abandonment of NATO aspirations, and the lifting of restrictions on the Russian language and the Moscow-affiliated Orthodox Church. Zelenskyy categorically rejects all these demands, insisting instead on a comprehensive ceasefire, the preservation of territorial integrity, and ironclad, US-backed security guarantees.
