Davos 2026: The triple fear of replacement shaking the world
The Davos summit highlights three global transformations—migration, AI, and the rise of Asia—triggering a "fear of replacement" that reshapes modern politics.
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By Ahmet Taş | Wise News Press
DAVOS, SWITZERLAND — As the global elite gather in the fading confidence of Davos halls to discuss "polycrisis," a profound climate of fear regarding "replacement" is fundamentally reshaping the established world order.
According to academic Evren Balta, the current global anxiety is driven by three major transformations: demographic shifts caused by migration and aging, the redefinition of work through automation and AI, and the geopolitical shift of production power to Asia. These "replacement narratives" are not merely determining the global agenda but are directly shaping voting preferences, party systems, and foreign policies across Western democracies and emerging markets alike.
Evren Balta
Demographic replacement and the politics of "Purification"
The first layer of this fear stems from the "Great Replacement" theory, which has moved from the fringes of the far-right to the center of official policy. This narrative frames migration as a systematic destruction of Western civilization rather than a manageable demographic phenomenon.
The reality, however, points to a different crisis: falling fertility rates and aging populations in Europe and the US. In this context, migration acts as a network filling the vacuum of aging societies rather than an "invasion." Targeting migrants does not eliminate the demographic need; it simply shifts the debate from public finance to identity warfare.
The automation of labor: A "Stolen Future" myth
While migration creates cultural anxiety, robots and Artificial Intelligence (AI) trigger a deeper existential crisis: the fear of becoming "unnecessary."
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Job Displacement: Goldman Sachs estimates that generative AI could expose 300 million full-time jobs to automation globally.
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Economic Impact: The same report suggests productivity gains could boost global GDP by approximately 7 percent over a decade.
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Sector Vulnerability: The ILO emphasizes that while "full automation" is rare, administrative and office work will face the most intense pressure.
Despite political rhetoric blaming "globalist elites" for closing factories, the data suggests a more permanent shift: US manufacturing value-added has risen while employment in the sector fell by over 25 percent between 1995 and 2025. Even if production returns to Western soil, it will be in "ghost factories" operated by robots rather than large human workforces.
The rise of Asia and the end of Empire
The final layer of fear is geopolitical, as China and the rising Asia challenge the West's privilege as the "master of history." Current data shows a significant shift in the global economic center of gravity:
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China's Share: IMF data indicates China holds approximately 19.63 percent of global production by purchasing power parity (PPP).
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US Share: The United States follows with 14.65 percent.
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Emerging Economies: The total share of developing economies has risen to 60.92 percent.
Despite this shift, the West retains a monopoly over the financial backbone, reserve currencies (the Dollar), and sanction capacities. Furthermore, China faces its own unsustainable economic models, with a record $1 trillion trade surplus in 2025 signaling a failure to stimulate domestic consumption. China is currently a "fragile giant" struggling with its own middle-income trap and aging population.
Managing the transformation
The "replacement" language does not frame the future as a manageable process but as a zero-sum war for space. Sidelining these fears requires a new social contract centered on wages, rent, taxes, and public services. At Davos, Mark Carney, former Governor of the Bank of England and current UN Special Envoy, suggested that "middle powers" must act together to build a new political line, as the old order has clearly ended. The future will be determined not just by a state's external position, but by the social consensus it can build within its borders.
Source : Evren Balta / T24
